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NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) appear an April commitment agenda that reflected the cogent challenges from the contempo COVID lockdowns in China. As a result, we accept it could absorb the abutting two abode convalescent to abounding production, impacting its acquirement and advantage estimates.

Notably, the accord estimates for FY22 accept additionally been revised clearly downwards, absorption these headwinds. Therefore, we accept that its banal re-rating could be delayed added into FY23. However, our amount activity assay additionally appropriate that the near-term basal could be in. Admitting the underwhelming April report, the banal did not revisit its March lows.

Furthermore, we additionally explained in a contempo Alibaba & Chinese tech stocks commodity that the authoritative ambiance had bigger markedly. Even admitting the COVID bearings charcoal fluid, automotive businesses in Shanghai accept started to resume operations. Therefore, we anticipate the affliction seems to be over for NIO and its Chinese EV peers.

Consequently, we reiterate our Buy appraisement on NIO banal as a abstract befalling only.

NIO deliveries by ages (Company filings)

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NIO delivered aloof 5.07K of cartage in April 2022, bottomward 28.6% YoY. It was additionally the company’s affliction bold back October 2021, back it delivered 3.67K of vehicles. Of course, its October achievement was afflicted due to its assembly band upgrade. In April 2022, NIO was hit by industry-wide assembly cuts consistent from China’s massive COVID lockdowns.

However, we accept that the appulse is transitory, not structural, admitting the exhausted numbers. Furthermore, companies in the automotive accumulation alternation accept started to resume operations. Therefore, NIO is additionally accepted to access assembly gradually. However, we apprehend abounding assembly resumption to balance alone from H2’22. Deutsche Bank (DB) additionally advised in recently, as it added (edited):

We apprehend some spillover furnishings in May accompanying to suppliers boring abiding to production, while June could be the aboriginal “normal” month, bold Covid altitude acknowledgment to normal. NIO additionally continues to access up sales of its anew launched flagship ET7 sedan. We accept it will be one of the best accepted exceptional cars on the bazaar this year. – CnEVPost

NIO acquirement YoY change % accord estimates (Company filings)

NIO adapted EBIT margins % accord estimates (Company filings)

As a aftereffect of the abrupt assembly curbs, the accord estimates on NIO’s acquirement and advantage accept been revised essentially downwards. Therefore, NIO’s aisle to advantage has additionally been added extended.

Notably, NIO is estimated to column acquirement advance of 22.3% in FQ1, which was not impacted by the lockdowns, which agitated alone at the end of March. However, its Q2 acquirement advance estimates accept been revised to 41.9%, from 47.8% (March estimates). Moreover, NIO’s acquirement advance accent is additionally accepted to be afflicted throughout the blow of FY22.

In addition, NIO’s adapted EBIT margins are additionally estimated to ache from cogent markdowns. For instance, NIO is accepted to column an adapted EBIT allowance of -15% in Q2 (ending June), bottomward from the -8.6% estimates in March. Commentary from the Street additionally seemed downcast, as Morgan Stanley (MS) accentuated (edited):

NIO’s agent assembly and commitment were acutely afflicted by accumulation alternation disruptions amidst COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Admitting bendable April sales should accept been able-bodied anticipated, investors are acceptable to accumulate a abutting watch on the resumption advance post-China’s May holidays. – The Fly

Therefore, we acerb animate investors to watch the automotive accumulation alternation developments closely.

NIO banal amount blueprint (TradingView)

As apparent above, the bazaar is still digesting the assets from 2020, chaotic by the 2021 balderdash trap. Furthermore, NIO banal has additionally collapsed through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, advertence that the drive is bearish.

However, we additionally empiric that NIO banal did not breach beneath its March lows, admitting the underwhelming April commitment address and revised estimates. Therefore, we are sanguine that the bazaar has already priced in cogent headwinds in NIO stock.

Accordingly, we anticipate the date has been set for administration to added calmly exhausted affective forward. In addition, the revised estimates accept bargain the bar for NIO to exhausted its accessible Q1 balance card, accompanying with its Q2 guidance.

However, we anticipate its re-rating could booty longer, potentially alone from FY23, as the bazaar parses its assembly cadence. Nevertheless, we accept the basal seems to be near, as continued as the COVID headwinds don’t get worse affective forward.

As such, we reiterate our Buy appraisement on NIO stock. However, we accent that it’s acceptable alone as a abstract opportunity. Therefore, investors are reminded to admeasurement their acknowledgment appropriately.

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